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논문검색

제목
    中国存在房地产泡沫吗?
    Does China have Real Estate Bubble?
저자 国策, 김상욱 권호 Vol.4 No.1
언어 중국어 페이지 24
게재일 2023.01.31 PDF Download
키워드
    中国, 房地产, 泡沫, 房价收入比, 住宅商品房
    China, Real Estate, Bubble, Price to Income Ratio, Residential Commercial Housing
요약
 本文基于前人所研究的房价收入比,确定了更符合中国的算法以及动态取值范围。结果显示,第一,2002-2020年期间中国的房价收入比一直高于国际通用的标准值的上限,但是没有超过本文认为的动态取值范围的上限,说明中国的房地产是持续有一定的泡沫风险的。第二, 2020年中国一半以上的省份可能出现了房地产泡沫,经济发达的东部地区省份可能更严重。第三,2002-2020年期间泡沫风险较高的北京市,海南省,上海市在2006年左右明显高于全国的泡沫水平,随后一直增加,直到2010年后开始得到慢慢的控制,但是从2014年左右又重新反弹了。
Abstract Based on the housing price-to-income ratio studied by previous researchers, this paper determines an algorithm that is more in line with China and a dynamic value range. The results show, First, from 2002 to 2020 China's housing price-to-income ratio has been higher than the upper limit of the internationally accepted standard value, but it has not exceeded the upper limit of the dynamic value range considered in this paper, indicating that China's real estate continues to have a certain risk of bubbles. Second, more than half of China's provinces may experience real estate bubbles in 2020 and the economically developed eastern provinces may be even more serious. Third, During 2002-2020 the bubble risk in Beijing, Hainan Province and Shanghai was significantly higher than the national bubble level around 2006, Since then it has been increasing, After 2010, the bubble began to be slowly controlled, But it rebounded again from around 2014.